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tsmktim yearm, start(1992m1)
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tsline liqour
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generate lnliqour = log( liqour)
tsline lnliqour
tsline lnliqour
generate trendsq = trend*trend
regress  lnliqour trend trendsq
predict residual1, r 
predict liqourtrend, xb
tsline  liqourtrend residual1 lnliqour
tsline  residual1
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regress  lnliqour trend trendsq  var11 var12 var13 var14 var15 var16 var17 var18 var19 var20 var21 var22, nocons
predict liqourtrendseason, xb
predict residual2, r
tsline  liqourtrendseason lnliqour
tsline  residual2
tsline  liqourtrendseason lnliqour
tsline  residual2
corrgram residual2 tin(,2006m12
corrgram residual2 if tin(,2006m12
corrgram residual2 if tin(,2006m12)
pac residual2
ac residual2
arima lnliqour trend trendsq  var11 var12 var13 var14 var15 var16 var17 var18 var19 var20 var21 var22 if tin(,2006m12), ar(3) nocons
arima lnliqour trend trendsq  var11 var12 var13 var14 var15 var16 var17 var18 var19 var20 var21 var22 if tin(,2006m12), ar(1/3) nocons
arima lnliqour trend trendsq  var11 var12 var13 var14 var15 var16 var17 var18 var19 var20 var21 var22 if tin(,2006m12), ar(2/3) nocons
estat ic
arima lnliqour trend trendsq  var11 var12 var13 var14 var15 var16 var17 var18 var19 var20 var21 var22 if tin(,2006m12), ar(1/3) nocons
estat ic
arima lnliqour trend trendsq  var11 var12 var13 var14 var15 var16 var17 var18 var19 var20 var21 var22 if tin(,2006m12), ar(1/3) ma(12) nocons
estat ic
arima lnliqour trend trendsq  var11 var12 var13 var14 var15 var16 var17 var18 var19 var20 var21 var22 if tin(,2006m12), ar(1/3) nocons
predict residual3, r
drop
drop residual3
predict residual3 if tin(,2006m12), r
tsline residual3
predict residual3 if tin(2007m1 ,2008m4), xb
predict liqourhat if tin(2007m1 ,2008m4), xb
tsline  liqourhat lnliqour if tin(2005m1, 2008m4)
histogram residual3, bin(30)